Pythagorean Baseball
Anybody who has read this blog for a while knows that I don’t rely too heavily on stats. I’m into traditional stats and like to read about stats and sabermetrics and the like but I think people these days tend to over analyze things based on stats. So it was kind of odd for me to be reading Dayn Perry’s “Winners: How Good Baseball Teams Become Great Ones (And It’s Not the Way You Think)”. This is an excellent book that does a statistical analysis of winning teams since the early 1980s and, based on the results, concludes what qualities it takes to be a winning team.
One of the stats touched upon very late in the book is a Bill James creation called Pythagorean Method. (It takes it’s name from geometry’s Pythagorean Theorem since it’s notation is similar.) This method attempts to predict a teams winning percentage based on the runs they score and the runs they allow. The formula for this stat is as follows:
Runs Scored2/(Runs Scored2+Runs Allowed2)= Winning Pct.
I was curious to see how this stat played itself out in reality so I did a quick analysis of the Mets, Phillies and Braves to see how they were doing based on this statistic. The results are as follows:
Team Runs
ScoredRuns
AllowedPyth.
PctW L Pct. Mets 343 275 .609 41 23 .641 Phillies 324 326 .497 33 32 .508 Braves 330 347 .475 30 36 .455
The theory goes that if a teams actual win percentage is above their Pythagorean win percentage then they are playing above expectations. If it’s below then thay are playing under their expectations. So, according to this, the Mets are playing above expectations, the Braves are playing below expectations and the Phillies are playing close to expected (but slightly below). That would mean that according to Pythagorean Method this race will tighten up a bit. It’ll be interesting to see how Pythagorean Method predicts what will happen.
Just for fun I plugged the Yankees into this formula and compared to the Mets.
Team Runs
ScoredRuns
AllowedPyth.
PctW L Pct. Mets 343 275 .609 41 23 .641 Yankees 366 294 .608 37 26 .587
According to this the Mets and Yankees should have identical records but the Yankees have been under performing. Interesting. Stay tuned.
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Third Best Team in Mets History?
The Mets reached 40 wins the third fastest in team history (63 games). The only Mets teams to get to 40 wins before the 65th game was in 1986 (40-16) and 1988 (40-22).
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Carter to Manage Futures
Former Mets catcher and current St. Lucie Mets manager Gary Carter has been named to manage the United States team in this years All-Star Futures Game on July 9th as part of this years All-Star Game festivities in Pittsburgh’s PNC Park. Managing the World team will be Ferguson Jenkins.
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Wright is a Deity
The more I see of David Wright the more I like him. Wright is quickly ascending the ladder to sainthood in my mind. His game last night added some brownie points in his favor.
I turned on the game in the third inning and watched as Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado homered to give the Mets a 4-3 lead. Then I watched as Bobby Abreu and Jimmy Rollins homered in the 3rd and 5th respectively to give the Phillies a 5-4 lead. (It was Rollins second homer of the game.)
With the game still in the balance Wright came up to the plate in the top of the sixth inning and promptly sent a Ryan Madson pitch into the left field bleachers to tie the game. This set up a 5 run inning in which the Mets took the lead.
Then in the ninth inning with no outs and runners on first and second Wright made a tremendous backhanded stab on Met killer Pat Burrell‘s shot up the third base line and turned it into a double play to kill a potentially deadly inning and save the game for the Mets who would win by a score of 9-7.
Billy Wagner pitched the last 5 outs to record his first save in Philadelphia since leaving the Phillies as a free agent to come to the Mets. Alot has been said about Wagner going back to Philly and he really heard it from the fans. But he took it all in stride and got his 13th save of the year.
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Mets All Star Leaders
David Wright has taken the lead in fan balloting over Scott Rolen by 17,000 votes. He had trailed Rolen by as many as 34,000 votes. Othe Mets on track to get into the game based on fan voting are Paul Lo Duca, who leads Mike Piazza by 100,000 votes, and Carlos Beltran, who has about a 1,000 vote edge for the third outfield spot over Alfonso Soriano.
Voting ends at 11:59 PM ET on Thursday, June 29, 2006 so there’s still time to vote for your other favorite Mets. Go to AllStarGame.com to vote.
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Beltran Named NL Player of the Week
Carlos Beltran‘s .483 AVG. (14-for-29) with 12 RBI, 13 runs and five stolen bases earned him NL player of the week honors for the week of June 5-11. The Mets were 6-1 in that span.
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Grimsley Suspended
If there was any doubt about Jason Grimsley‘s future in the major leagues it was wiped out today. Grimsley has been suspended from baseball for 50 games. The suspension will take affect upon Grimsley being added to a team’s 40-man roster. Grimsley’s numbers were not very good this year even with the HGH he was taking. Now that he was released by the Diamondbacks (upon his request) he is free to sign with any team who wants him. Upon his release it was pretty much assumed that his career was over as no team would want to take on the public relations baggage Grimsley now carries with him. Add a 50 game penalty to that (during which the team would not be able to replace him on the 40-man roster) his future in the major leagues, or lack thereof, has been sealed.
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A Lasting Impression?
Barry M. Bloom writes about Lastings Milledge and what may happen to him once Cliff Floyd and Xavier Nady are both back in the lineup.
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R.I.P. Moe Drabowsky
Those of us who delighted in Roger McDowell’s antics as a young pitcher for the Mets owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to Moe Drabowsky. Drabowsky was a prankster pitcher from 1956-1972. Among other well known pranks Drabowsky once gave a hotfoot (McDowell’s favorite trick) to then commissioner of baseball Bowie Kuhn. Drabowsky died this past weekend from cancer at the age of 70. This obituary highlights some of his career accomplishments and biggest pranks.
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So Long, Kaz
On Friday I mentioned a report by Ken Rosenthal at Foxsports.com about the possibility that the Mets would trade Kazuo Matsui to the Colorado Rockies for Eli Marrero. On Staurday morning I opened up the newspaper to see that Ken’s report was spot on.
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